Economical İndikators

ECONOMICAL PARAMETERS OF THE USA

Atlanta Fed index
Index of business activity of Federal reserve bank in Atlanta. It represents results of questionnaire of manufacturers in Atlanta for their attitude to a current economic situation. Figures below “0” are the indicator of delay of rates of economical development. Its value is published after 10-th of each month at 09:00 EST (New York). This index renders limited influence on the market becouse it is published after Indicator of Business Activity at national level (NAPM index). Growth of value of this index is the favorable factor for growth of a dollar exchange rate.

Average hourly earnings
It is expressed in the form of absolute value and in the form of an index in relation to the previous period of consideration. Is the indicator of the potential inflation connected with growth of cost of a labour. Renders significant influence on the market. In conditions of expectation of increase of the basic interest rates growth of its value can lead to growth of a dollar exchange rate. It is published, as a rule, on the first Friday of each month at 08:30 EST (New York) simultaneously with a parameter ” Nonfarm payrolls “.

Average workweek
The indicator shows average duration of working week within a month. It is published, as a rule, on the first Friday of each month at 08:30 EST (New York) simultaneously with a parameter ” Nonfarm payrolls “. It practically does not influence the market . It is used for the long-term analysis of employment in the country. It is a “good” parameter of condition of labour market at different stages of a business cycle. It is considered as one of defining indicators for such parameters as Industrial production and Personal income which values are published later.

Beige book
The economic review of Federal reserve system of the USA.
It is made by twelve Federal reserve banks of the USA. The review covers industrial production, services, agriculture, financial institutions, labour market and market of the real estate. Renders limited influence on the market. When there are gossips about possible change of interest rates pay attention to part of the review about condition of wages and prices. The review is useful from the point of view of acknowledgement of tendency which have already developed in economy. Its value is published 8 times a year, on Wednesdays, two weeks before the session of Federal open market committee (FOMC) at 14:00 EST (New York).

Building permits
The indicator shows quantity of Building permits of new houses. The indicator is very sensitive to change of the basic interest rates as construction needs bank credits. This data, by virtue of features of the market of the real estate, may change seasonally. Process of construction is directly connected with incomes of the population. Therefore, increase in volumes of construction characterizes improvement of well-being and healthy development of economy. Renders limited influence on the market. Growth of its value renders positive influence on a rate of national currency. Its value is published on the third week of each month at 08:30 EST (New York) simultaneously with a parameter ” Housing starts “.

Business inventories
Stocks of the goods, accessories and semifinished items in warehouses.
There is a following law: the increase in stocks within several months can testify presence of stagnation in economy. Influence of this indicator on the market is limited. However the steady tendency in its dynamics has the big influence on the market. Growth of value of an index renders negative influence on dollar exchange rate. Its value is published in the middle of each month at 08:30 EST (New York).

Capacity utilisation
Defines rate of use of productive potential of a national economy. The level of 85 % is considered to be a good balance between economic growth and a rate of inflation. Excess of this level causes inflationary processes in a national economy. Renders limited influence on the market. Growth of this parameter leads to growth of in rate of national currency. Its value is published in the middle of each month at 09:15 EST (New York) together with ” Industrial production ”

Chicago PMI index
Index of business activity of Association of Purchase Managers in Chicago.
It represents results of questionnaire of purchase managers of industrial companies of Chicago. This index shows condition of industrial orders, product prices and commodity stocks in warehouses. Figures below “45-50” are indicators of slow rates of development of economy. The indicator is steadfastly observed by market, as it is published shortly before an output of an index of business activity of National Association of Purchase Managers (NAPM). This index renders significant influence on the market becouse it gives an idea about upcoming indicator of business activity at national level (NAPM). Growth of value of indicator leads to growth of dollar exchange rate. Its value is published in last business-day of each month at 10:00 EST (New York).

Construction spending
The indicator is expressed in the form of an index in relation to the previous period of consideration and in the form of absolute value of volume of expenses. The indicator is very sensitive to change of the basic interest rates becouse construction needs bank credits. This data, by virtue of features of the market of the real estate, may change seasonally. Process of construction is directly connected with incomes of the population. Therefore, the increase in volumes of construction characterizes improvement of well-being and healthy development of economy. Renders limited influence on the market. Growth of its value renders positive influence on rate of national currency. Its value is published, as a rule, in the first business-day of each month at 10:00 EST (New York).

Consumer confidence
This review is an attempt to measure optimism of consumers. The index exists since 1967. First it was equal to “100”. Renders the limited influence on the market becouse it can not reflect a real condition of economy. However it is traditionally used for forecasting tendencies in the field of employment and general condition of economy. Growth of value of the index is the positive factor for development of national economy and leads to growth of dollar exchange rate. Its value is published after 20-th of each month at 10:00 EST (New York).

Consumer credit
Shows volume of use of credit system by Americans through credit cards, personal loan and purchases by installments. It is an indicator of consumer demand. The growing value of this indicator testifies that consumers are not afraid ” to get into debts “. However figures are often reconsidered and have significant seasonal fluctuations. For example, size of consumer credit grows before Christmas and New year. Renders limited influence on the market. Growth of value of the index is a positive factor for development of national economy and leads to growth of dollar exchange rate. Its value is published about 7-th of each month at 15:00 EST (New York).

Consumer price index (CPI)
Defines change of a level of retail prices for “basket” of the goods and services. The consumer price index is considered more authentic if in it food and power industries are not considered. At calculation of an index the prices for the import goods and services are considered. The consumer price index is the main indicator of a rate of inflation in the country. This index analyze together with a parameter “PPI” (Producer price Index). If the economy develops in normal conditions growth of parameters CPI and PPI can lead to increase of the basic interest rates in the country. It, in turn, leads to growth of a dollar exchange rate as appeal of an investment of means in currency with the greater interest rate increases. Its value is published in the middle of each month (soon after an output of parameter PPI) at 08:30 EST (New York).

Current account (Balance of payments)
Represents a parity between the sum of the payments acting from abroad, and the sum of the payments, following border. If payments acting in the country exceed payments to other countries and the international organizations, the balance of payments is active (positive balance), if on the contrary – that passive (negative balance). The positive balance (or reduction of size of negative balance) is the favorable factor for growth of a rate of national currency. Renders the limited influence on the market. Its value is published every quarter, in the middle of month of the publication at 10:00 EST (New York).

Durable goods orders
The goods concern to the goods of long using with service life more than three years. To them concern: cars, furniture, etc. to allocate the variability inherent in military and transport orders, from this indicator allocate parameters, which do not consider orders for the defensive industry (Durable goods orders excluding defence) and transport orders (Durable goods orders excluding transportation). This indicator is important for the market as it gives representation about confidence of consumers of this production of a current economic situation. As the goods of long using cost dearly enough the increase in number of orders at them shows readiness of consumers to spend for them the means. Thus, growth of this parameter is the positive factor for development of economy and leads to growth of a rate of national currency. Its value is published on the fourth week of each month at 08:30 EST (New York).

Employment cost index
It includes wages and unemployment benefits. It can serve as the indicator of presence of inflationary processes in a national economy. The value index of a labour is one of those indicators whom the Federal reserve system steadfastly watches at carrying out of the monetary policy (and it speaks about much). In conditions of expectation of increase of the basic interest rates growth of its value leads to growth of a dollar exchange rate. It is used for sredne-and long-term forecasts. Its value is published every quarter, after 20-th date of the publication at 08:30 EST (New York).

Existing home sales
Shows quantity of the sold houses in the secondary market of the real estate for a year. Can give representation about optimism of consumers (consumer confidence) and about their ability to buy expensive things. These data, by virtue of features of the market of the real estate, are subject to seasonal fluctuations. Process of construction directly is connected with a condition of incomes of the population. Therefore, the increase in volumes of construction characterizes improvement of its well-being and healthy development of economy. Renders the limited influence on the market. Growth of its value renders positive influence on a rate of national currency. Its value is published every month after 20-th at 10:00 EST (New York).

Export prices
The index reflects change of the prices for export for a month. Is the indicator of inflation. Renders the limited influence on the market. In conditions of expectation of increase of the basic interest rates growth of value of an index leads to growth of a dollar exchange rate. Its value is published every month about 10-th at 08:30 EST (New York) simultaneously with a parameter ” Import prices “.

Factory orders
Industrial orders include orders for the goods long (more than 50 % of all orders) and short-term using. Food stuffs, clothes, the goods of light industry and the goods calculated on operation with the goods of long using concern to the goods of short-term using. The goods concern to the goods of long using with service life more than three years. To them concern: cars, furniture, etc. The parameter ” Industrial orders ” renders the limited influence on the market. Special attention turn on the tendency in its development. Growth of value of an index is the positive factor for development of national economy and leads to growth of a dollar exchange rate. Its value is published in the first of each month at 10:00 EST (New York).

Federal budget
Characterizes a parity between incomes of the state and its charges. At excess of a level of incomes of the state over its charges the positive balance is formed. At excess of a level of charges of the state over its incomes the negative balance (deficiency) is formed. This parameter renders insignificant influence on the market. Usually it use for the long-term analysis of economy. Budgetary deficiency consider in a context with other indicators: an index of the industrial prices (PPI), a consumer price index (CPI), monetary units (M1, M2, M3), etc. Its value is published about 20-th of each month at 14:00 EST (New York).

GDP – Gross domestic product
Is the main indicator reflecting a condition of national economy. According to kejnsianskoj models of development of economy, gross national product can be presented in a following kind: GDP = C + I + S + E – M, where With – consumption, I – investments, S – the State expenditure, E – export, M – import. Gross national product is expressed in the form of an index in relation to the previous period of consideration, and in the form of absolute value of the sum of the prices for the made goods and services. Renders significant influence on the market. Growth of gross national product leads to growth of a rate of national currency.

GDP advance
This indicator is the first step of three levels of data about gross national product which are published every quarter. They leave in following sequence: advance – provisional (revised) – final. Its value is published every quarter, after 20-th date of the publication at 08:30 EST (New York).

GDP deflator
This attitude of current value of gross national product to its base value. Reflects size of an inflationary component in value of gross national product. It is published simultaneously from gross national product. Renders significant influence on the market. In conditions of expectation of increase of the basic interest rates growth of its value leads to growth of a dollar exchange rate.

GDP final
This updating of ” the reconsidered value ” gross national product (provisional). More often differences between them minimal. Therefore these figures do not surprise the market. Its value is published in next month after the publication ” GDP provisional ” after 20-th at 08:30 EST (New York).

GDP provisional (revised)
This updating (revision) of ” preliminary value ” gross national product (advance). It is published in next month after the publication ” GDP advance ” after 20-th at 08:30 EST (New York).

Help-wanted index
Characterizes volume of the published announcements in newspapers about hiring workers and employees. 1987 has been put for basic then its value was equaled “100”. At its analysis use ” sliding averages ” (moving average). If sliding average shows change of a trend of an index within several months it can be an attribute of change of a situation on a labour market. Also the index can give representation about possible change of an economic situation in different regions of the country. Practically does not render influence on the market. Its influence is limited by that in calculation the limited quantity of large regional newspapers is accepted only. Its value is published, as a rule, on last Thursday each month at 10:00 EST (New York).

Housing starts
The indicator shows quantity of new houses which construction has already begun. It is very sensitive to change of the basic interest rates in the country as under construction it is necessary to take bank credits. These data, by virtue of features of the market of the real estate, are subject to seasonal fluctuations. Process of construction directly is connected with a condition of incomes of the population. Therefore the increase in volumes of construction characterizes improvement of its well-being and healthy development of economy. Renders the limited influence on the market. Growth of its value renders positive influence on a rate of national currency. Its value is published on the third week of each month at 08:30 EST (New York) simultaneously with a parameter ” Building permits “.

Humphrey-Hawkins testimony
This performance of the chapter of Federal reserve system of the USA (Federal Reserve) (now it Alan Greenspan) before two bank committees of the Congress of the USA.
This performance passes two times a year: in the winter and in the summer. Two chambers of the Congress (The Senate and House) vary places in occasion of what committee once again the first listens to the report. The report throws light on new plans and the purposes of Federal reserve system at carrying out of monetary policy. Participants of the market steadfastly observe of it all and try to find a hint on possible actions FRS at the future change of the basic interest rates. Performance renders significant influence on the market. This one of the most important and significant events for the financial market.

Import prices
The index reflects change of the prices for import month. Is the indicator of inflation. As at calculation of a consumer price index (CPI) the prices for the import goods and services the given value characterizes the contribution of the prices for import the general picture of change of retail prices for “basket” of the goods and services are considered. Renders the limited influence on the market. In conditions of expectation of increase of the basic interest rates growth of value of an index leads to growth of a dollar exchange rate. Its value is published every month about 10-th at 08:30 EST (New York) simultaneously with a parameter ” Export prices “.

Industrial production
Is one of the main indicators reflecting a condition of national economy. The index shows a level of change of volume of release of industrial production and municipal services in the country. Its value is published in the middle of each month at 09:15 EST (New York). Renders significant influence on the market. Growth of this parameter leads to growth of a rate of national currency.

International trade (Trade balance)
Represents a parity between the sum of the prices of the goods which has been taken out for limits of the given state, and the sum of the prices of the goods imported on territory of this state. I.e. a difference between export and import. If the sum of the prices of the taken out goods exceeds the sum of the prices imported the trading balance is active (positive balance) if import exceeds export – passive (the negative balance). The positive balance (or reduction of size of negative balance) is the favorable factor for growth of a rate of national currency. Renders significant influence on the market. Its value is published on the third week of each month (usually on Thursday) at 08:30 EST (New York).

Jobless claims (Initial claims)
Shows week change of quantity of applications for reception of unemployment benefits. It is published every week on Thursdays at 08:30 EST (New York). These figures not always reflect a real picture of events. They are sometimes deformed by short-term factors, such as federal or local holidays. This indicator can give representation about what next time will leave a parameter ” Nonfarm payrolls “. For example, if within a month value of the indicator ” Jobless claims ” consistently decreases, the probability of is great that value of a parameter ” Nonfarm payrolls ” will be greater. Renders the limited influence on the market. Reduction of quantity of applications by the unemployment benefit is the favorable factor for growth of a dollar exchange rate.

Leading indicators index
It is the average index of such parameters, as: ” industrial orders “, ” quantity of applications for reception of unemployment benefits “, ” parameters of monetary weight of M “, ” the size of average working week “, ” sanctions to construction of the real estate “, the prices for the basic actions, ” orders for the goods of long using “, ” an index of trust of consumers “. It is considered, that it characterizes development of economy during the subsequent 6-òè months. There is also an empirical rule, that the output of value of the indicator in negative area within three months is the indicator of delay of development of a national economy on end. Renders the limited influence on the market. Its limited influence speaks that value of an index leaves in a month after the accounting period when practically all the basic parameters are already published. Growth of value of an index leads to growth of a dollar exchange rate. Its value is published, as a rule, in the first of each month at 10:00 EST (New York).

Michigan consumer sentiment index
This index represents results of interrogation of consumers for confidence of a current economic situation. Interrogation is spent by employees Michiganskogo of University of the USA. The report leaves two times a month: on the second week (it is usual on Friday) about 15 numbers of accounting month (preliminary), and in two weeks (final). Публикуется в 10:00 EST (Нью-Йорк). This indicator – anything other as reflection of desire of consumers to spend the money. Renders the limited influence on the market. Growth of value of an index leads to growth of a dollar exchange rate.

Money supply (М1, M2, М3)
They are parameters of monetary weight. M1 considers the most liquid resources: cash currency, means for accounts “poste restante”, traveller’s cheques. M2 includes M1, fixed deposits (up to $100 000) and others vysokolikvidnye savings. M3 includes M2 and fixed deposits of the large sizes. Parameters M1, M2, M3 are published every week on Thursdays at 16:30 EST (New York) and have informative character. They show week change of monetary weight. Most significant of them is M2. The market practically is not influenced by these statistical data.

NAPM index (National Association of Purchasing Managers’ index)
It represents results of questionnaire of managers on purchases in sphere of the industry. This index is used for an estimation of changes in the field of new industrial orders, volume of industrial production, employment, and also commodity stocks and speed of work of suppliers. Figures below “45-50” are the indicator of delay of rates of development of economy. Often the size of this index is influenced with psychological factors, rather than an actual state of affairs. At calculation of an index do not include state of California. As industrial outputs is not automatically a source of a consumer demand to this indicator approach with care. Its value is published in the first business-day of each month at 10:00 EST (New York). Renders the limited influence on the market. Growth of value of an index leads to growth of a dollar exchange rate.

New home sales
The figure shows quantity of the houses sold or exposed on sale calculated on one family, for a year. This quantity tends to growth when the rate under loans on the security of the real estate which is connected with the basic interest rates in the country grows. These data, by virtue of features of the market of the real estate, are subject to seasonal fluctuations. Therefore at the analysis of a parameter ” New home sales ” use ” sliding averages ” (moving average). Renders the limited influence on the market. Growth of its value renders positive influence on a rate of national currency. Its value is published in the first of each month at 10:00 EST (New York).

Nonfarm payrolls
Quantity of the new workplaces created in not agricultural branches of economy for month.
Payroll is a paysheet on which the salary to workers stands out. It is very strong indicator showing change of an occupation level in the country. The gain of this parameter characterizes increase in employment and leads to growth of a dollar exchange rate. It name ” the indicator which moves the markets “. There is an empirical rule, that the increase in its value on 200 000 in a month is equated to increase in gross national product at 3.0 %. It is published, as a rule, on the first Friday of each month at 08:30 EST (New York).

Personal income
The index includes wages of workers and employees, the income of the rent, dividends, the income of bank percent, payments on social insurance, etc. consider It together with the indicator ” Personal spending “. Renders the limited influence on the market. Change of this parameter characterizes a condition of purchasing capacity of the population. Growth of its value at a normal level of charges can lead to growth of volume of retails that is the positive factor for development of national economy and leads to growth of a dollar exchange rate. Its value is published after 20-th of each month at 08:30 EST (New York).

Personal spending (consumption)
The index reflects change of an expenditure of means for satisfaction of personal needs. Renders the limited influence on the market. Its value is published after 20-th of each month at 08:30 EST (New York) simultaneously with a parameter ” Personal income “. The index includes three components: charges on purchase of the goods of long using, short-term using and services. About consumption of the goods of long and short-term using gives representation a parameter ” Retail sales ” (Retails). Process of consumption of services, in turn, changes with rather constant speed, therefore the size of this parameter is often predicted. Thus, only the significant deviation of this parameter from predicted values can influence a rate of national currency. Growth of its value is the positive factor for development of national economy and leads to growth of a dollar exchange rate.

Philadelphia Fed index
Index of business activity of Federal reserve bank in Philadelphia.
It represents results of interrogation of manufacturers in Philadelphia for their attitude to a current economic situation. Figures below “0” are the indicator of delay of rates of development of economy. Its value is published on the third Thursday of each month at 10:00 EST (New York). Renders the limited influence on the market. Of it steadfastly observe, as this index is published before an index “NAPM”, and can give representation about what will leave the indicator of business activity at a national level. Growth of value of this index leads to growth of a dollar exchange rate.

Producer price index (PPI)
Defines change of a price level on “basket” of the goods made in the industry. Till 1978 it referred to ” Wholesale price index ” (the Index of wholesale prices). This index consists of two parts: the prices for an input (the semifinished items completing, etc.) and the prices on an output manufactures (finished goods). The price for an output includes cost of a labour and gives representation about the inflation connected with change of cost of a labour. The index of the industrial prices is considered more authentic if in it food and power industries are not considered. At calculation of an index the prices for the import goods and services are not considered. Renders significant influence on the market. In conditions of expectation of increase of the basic interest rates growth of its value leads to growth of a dollar exchange rate. It is published every month, as a rule, next week after an output ” Nonfarm payrolls “, at 08:30 EST (New York).

Productivity
The index shows change of volume of the let out production falling one worker. Labour productivity is very important indicator for the analysis of a condition of economy. Renders significant influence on the market. However, it is necessary to watch it steadfastly as it from time to time can mislead. For example, reduction of number borrowed on manufacture during stagnation in economy leads to growth of productivity. Same can occur and owing to strikes. Growth of value of an index is the positive factor for development of national economy and leads to growth of a dollar exchange rate. Its value is published every quarter, up to 10-th date of the publication at 08:30 EST (New York).

Real earnings (Real average weekly earnings)
The index pays off in view of inflation (it is cleared of influence of inflation). Calculation is made For exception of influence of inflation in relation to base year for which 1982 is accepted. It is expressed in the form of absolute value and in the form of an index in relation to the previous period of consideration. It can serve as the indicator of development of the inflationary processes connected with growth of cost of a labour. Renders the limited influence on the market. In conditions of expectation of increase of the basic interest rates growth of its value can lead to growth of a dollar exchange rate. It is published, as a rule, in the middle of each month at 08:30 EST (New York) simultaneously with a parameter “CPI” (Consumer price index).

Redbook
It represents results of research of volumes of retails of large supermarkets. It is published every week on Tuesdays at 10:30 EST (New York). The first review of month (on the first Tuesday of month) compares the first week of current month with the first week of the last month, the second review compares first two weeks of current month to first two weeks of the last month, etc. Thus, the full picture of the review is formed only during the moment of the publication of last review of month (on last Tuesday). Practically does not render influence on the market. It speaks that figures differ significant disorder of values (variability) and that at the review there is a limited quantity of shops.

Retail sales
The index shows change of a sales volume in sphere of retail trade. Characterizes a level of consumer charges and demand. This indicator divide on: ” sales of cars ” and ” sales of all rest “. As the quantity of the sold cars is very changeable size the most true information is born in itself with that part of the indicator in which ” sales of cars ” are not considered. Growth of volume of retails is the positive factor for development of national economy and leads to growth of a rate of national currency. It is published in the middle of each month at 08:30 EST (New York). Renders the limited influence on the market (basically, in sredne-and the long-term plan).

Unemployment rate
Shows percentage of number of unemployeds to an aggregate number of able-bodied population. Leaves simultaneously with the indicator ” Nonfarm payrolls “. Renders significant influence on the market. Usually analysis of a rate of unemployment spend in a context with the figures reflecting size of a parameter ” Nonfarm payrolls “. For example, growth of value of a parameter ” Nonfarm payrolls ” at growth of a rate of unemployment testifies to increase in unemployment in agricultural branches of economy, etc. In conditions of expectation of increase of the basic interest rates reduction of its value leads to growth of a dollar exchange rate. It is published, as a rule, on the first Friday of each month at 08:30 EST (New York) simultaneously with a parameter ” Nonfarm payrolls “.

Unit labour cost
The index characterizes the expenses connected with manufacture of a unit of production. It is the important parameter describing efficiency of development of a national economy. Renders significant influence on the market. It serves as the good indicator of development of the inflationary processes connected with growth of wages. Usually analysis of this index spend in a context with the figures reflecting size of a parameter “Productivity” (Labour productivity). Growth of cost of unit of let out production alongside with growth of labour productivity can lead to necessity of increase of the basic interest rates that is the positive factor for growth of a dollar exchange rate. Its value is published every quarter, up to 10-th date of the publication at 08:30 EST (New York) simultaneously with a parameter “Productivity”.

Wholesale inventories
The index characterizes attitudes between wholesalers and retail trade. Renders the limited influence on the market, however gives representation about tendencies in these sectors of economy which can be projected on economy as a whole. “Overstocking” of warehouses can specify presence of developments of stagnation in economy. The steady tendency in its dynamics has the big influence on the market. Growth of value of an index renders negative influence on a dollar exchange rate. Its value is published about 10-th of each month at 10:00 EST (New York)

ECONOMICAL PARAMETERS OF THE GREAT BRITAIN

Average earnings growth
The indicator of growth of earnings for last three months (payments which have really been made are considered, future payments are not considered). It is a good parameter of the future rate of inflation because growth of earnings not compensated by growth of labour productivity, is the reason of a rise in prices. It is one of defining indicators according to which the Bank of England defines the level of interest rates. It is a monthly indicator. Renders significant influence on the market.

Producer output prices (PPI output)
It is defined as change of a level of cost prices of goods in industry. The strong indicator of inflation. Reflects inflationary pressure upon economy from manufacturers (the rise in prices “on an output ” can not be reflected in an index of inflation as decrease in costs in sphere of trade is possible). From a general meaning of the indicator usually allocate a part which is not considering the prices for food, alcohol, tobacco products and fuel (the prices for this goods it is considered very changeable). Renders significant influence on the market.

Producer input prices (PPI input)
It is defined as change of price level of accessories and semifinished items in the industry (the rise in prices “on an input ” can not be reflected in an index of inflation as decrease in costs during manufacture is possible). The strong indicator of inflation. From a general meaning of the indicator usually allocate a part which is not considering the prices for food, alcohol, tobacco products and fuel (the prices for this goods it is considered very changeable size). The indicator is taken by market into consideration.

Retail price index (RPI)
Defines change of a price level on a basket of the goods of consumption. As a parameter of a rate of inflation the retail price index is not considering percentage of payments by credits for purchase of the real estate (RPI-X) serves. The Retail price index calculated by a uniform formula, for comparison with similar indexes in other countries, refers to harmonized (HICP). If rates of growth of an index exceed the planned value usually Bank of England raises interest rates. Renders significant influence on the market.

CBI industrial trends
The economic review of the British Confederation of Manufacturers. The review (in the form of figures) reflects business moods of businessmen of industrial sector of economy. The review has no direct communication with real prospects of development of economy. The indicator is taken by the market into consideration.

CBI distributive trades
The economic review of the British Confederation of Manufacturers.

The review (in the form of figures) reflects business moods of businessmen concerning trading sphere. The review has no direct communication with real prospects of development of economy. The indicator is taken by the market into consideration.

Purchasing managers index (PMI)
The indicator of Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply. Reflects change of rates of industrial production. Value of the indicator above 50 % reflects growth of rates of industrial production, below 50 % – delay. The indicator is taken by the market into consideration.

Retail Sales
Is the indicator of consumption level. If a consumption level above a level of production it usually leads to growth of inflation. It is necessary to note, that the index of retails for a month is very variable. Average for three last months describes situation better.

Manufacturing output
Volume of production which has been let out by a manufacturing industry, expressed in the prices. Is the indicator of economic growth. Value of the indicator for the market is insignificant, as the contribution of a manufacturing industry to an internal total product makes recently less than 20 %.

Unemployment (Claimant count rate)
Claimant count is the quantity of applications of unemployeds to the centers of employment. The lower the unemployment – the more people are payed the unemployment salary that causes growth of inflation.

Global trade, Non-EU trade balance
Difference between export and the import, expressed in the prices. The index gradually loses the influence on the market as greater value of streams of capitals, instead of goods are conserned. At the same time growth of import tells about increase of a consumption level in the country, and growth of export – about increase of a level of production. In the Great Britain it is accepted to allocate separately value of trading balance with the countries not entering in the European Union.

Industrial output (Industrial production)
Includes volume of release of a manufacturing industry (manufacturing output), and also considers volumes of release in such sector like extraction and processing of minerals, municipal services. Is the indicator of economic growth. The indicator is not defining for a direction of development of economy as more than 60 % of an internal total product the sphere of services now provides.

Gross domestic product (GDP)
The sum of the goods made in the country and the services expressed in the prices. Despite of the importance of the indicator, its influence on the market decreases because its value is usually predicted by the market on the basis of other data, and also owing to numerous revisions of value GDP after the first output.

M4 money supply
Includes volume of cash currency in circulation, the total sum of the credits which have been given out by banks, and also the sum of loans of the government. M4 it is considered to be a good indicator for a rate of inflation. The indicator is taken by the market into consideration.

Public sector borrowing requirement (PSBR)
Difference between incomes and charges of the budget of the country. The indicator does not render the big influence on the market.

Unit wage costs
If rates of growth of cost of a labour exceed rates of growth of labour productivity it causes inflationary pressure upon economy. Renders limited influence on the market.

Net consumer credit
The sum of the given out credits in last month. The big value of the indicator can tell about “overheat” of economy when consumers borrow more credits, than it is necessary for a normal standard of living. Renders limited influence on the market.

Housing starts
Shows quantity of new houses which construction has already begun. Has the limited influence on the market.

ECONOMICAL PARAMETERS OF JAPAN

Tankan report

The quarterly economic review published by department of researches and statistics of Bank of Japan. The review is made on the basis of estimations more than 8000 companies, firms and institutes on following economic parameters: 1) conditions of business dealing; 2) manufacture and selling; 3) supply and demand, price level; 4) incomes; 5) direct investments; 6) employment; 7) tax conditions. Tankan is the most important Japanese indicator.

Balance of payments
The indicator represents a parity between the sum of the payments from abroad, and the sum of the payments to abroad. If payments in the country exceed payments to other countries and the international organizations, the balance of payments is positive, if on the contrary – negative balance. The positive balance (or reduction of size of negative balance) is the favorable factor for growth of a rate of national currency. The indicator is taken by the market into consideration.

Industrial production index
Shows a level of change of volume of industrial production in the country. Growth of this parameter leads to growth of a rate of national currency. Renders significant influence on the market.

Gross domestic product (GDP)
The sum of the goods made in the country and the services expressed in the prices. Is the indicator more likely confirming expectations of the market, but not predicting. The indicator is taken by the market into consideration.

Machinery orders
The indicator reflects a level of capital investments of firms and business activity. It is made on the basis of estimations of more than 300 industrial manufacturers. Renders significant influence on the market.

Unemployment
The high rate of unemployment inspite of the fact that reflects high efficiency of use of labour, can threaten economic rise as it cause accumulation, instead of to consumption.

Consumer price index (CPI)
Defines change of a price level on “basket” of the goods of consumption. The consumer price index is the main indicator of a rate of inflation in the country.

Wholesale price index (WPI)
Reflects change of a price level of a large consignment of goods. It is calculated as average of three components: internal wholesale prices, wholesale prices for export and wholesale prices for import. WPI is considered to be the best indicator of inflation, because CPI directly reflects condition in business-sector.

Leading and coincident indices of business conditions
The index of leading indicators is the average value of 13 basic indicators. It is used for definition of the future condition of economy. The index of conterminous indicators consists of 11 indicators and is intended for an estimation of a current condition of economy (the level of the indicator of 50 % is “zero”). Poorly influence the market.

Retail sales
The indicator reflects change of retail sales level. The statistics covers department stores and supermarkets. Shows a level of consumer charges and demand. Renders weak influence on the market.

ECONOMICAL INDICATORS OF GERMANY

M3 money supply
Includes volume of cash currency in circulation, means for check contributions, deposits with terms of repayment less than 4th years. It is considered by Bundesbank and the European central bank as one of the major indicators of inflation. As much as possible comprehensible value of the indicator (the comprehensible rate of inflation is defined), and in case of excess by the indicator of this value is usually established, usually there is an increase of interest rates.

Unemployment
The indicator is very important for politicians in Germany and the Europe (as in the Europe the rate of unemployment is traditionally high, that causes anxiety of the population). Renders strong influence on the decisions made by politicians and the central bank. Renders significant influence on the market.

IFO survey
The review estimates a level of business in the country. Value of the indicator can change within the limits of from 80 up to 120, for 100 the level of business in 1991 is accepted. Renders significant influence on the market.

Manufacturing orders
The indicator shows change of quantity of orders for production of the German enterprises. Reflects prospects of economic development of the country.

Manufacturing production
Shows change of volume of production which has been let out by a manufacturing industry.

Industrial production
Shows a level of change of volume of industrial production in the country. The indicator considers processing and a mining industry, a forestry and producing of electricity.

Producer price index (PPI)
Defines change of price levels on the goods of industrial purpose. Is the indicator of inflation.

Retail Sales
Is the indicator of a consumption level. If a consumption level above a level of production it usually leads to growth of inflation.

Import prices
The indicator reflects change of the import prices. Is the indicator of inflation.

Balance of trade
Difference between export and the import, expressed in the prices. Renders weak influence on the market.

Current account
Parity between the sum of the payments from abroad, and the sum of the payments to abroad.

Wholesale price index
Reflects change of wholesale prices for a month. Is the indicator of inflation. Renders weak influence on the market.

Gross domestic product (GDP)
The sum of the goods made in the country and the services expressed in the prices. Value of the indicator, by time of its output, is usually well predicted by the market on the basis of other data, therefore influence on the market is weak. Value of an index is repeatedly reconsidered.

 

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